Northern Canada will see substantial increases in temperature and precipitation in the coming decades, according to a range of atmosphere–ocean global climate projections. Areas north of latitude 60°  N, which include the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut, could see temperature increases of approximately 6°C by the end of this century.

An article in the upcoming issue of AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment is one of a series that reviews historical and instrumental climate changes as well as models that predict future changes in the northern latitudes of Canada. Companion articles will explore changes in other physical, biological, and human systems.

Physical evidence shows that the Arctic has been progressively warming over the past 400 years, and this rate of change has increased markedly in the past 150 years. Instrumental documentation of climate changes has been available for the Canadian North since about 1950. Warming trends are most evident in winter and spring.

Precipitation totals have increased throughout the region as well. From 1948 to 2005, the Arctic tundra experienced a 25% increase and Arctic mountain regions saw a 16% increase in annual precipitation. Additionally, snow cover extent has significantly decreased over most of Canada.

The predictions for future climate change are derived from seven atmosphere–ocean global climate models recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They center on three 30-year periods: 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099.

While these models show considerable variation, particularly in regard to precipitation, they all agree that northern Canada will see a warmer climate by the end of the 21st century.

AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment aims to serve the important function of putting into perspective significant developments in environmental research, policy, and related activities, and to reach specialists, generalists, students, decision-makers, and interested laymen around the world with this information. Among the subjects covered are: ecology, environmental economics, geology, geochemistry, geophysics, paleontology, hydrology, water resources, oceanography, earth sciences, meteorology, and physical geography. AMBIO is published by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, an independent, non-governmental organization founded in 1739. The major aims of the Academy are to promote research in mathematics and the natural sciences. To learn more about the Academy, please visit: http://www.kva.se.

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